Well, that’s a dose of good news.

A survey of economists shows a majority think the recession will be over by the end of the year.

Oh, and here’s an interesting thought from the article:

Seventy-one percent of the forecasters believe a more-thrifty consumer will be around for at least the next five years. Americans’ personal savings rate edged up to 4.2 percent in March, marking the first time in a decade that the savings rate has been above 4 percent for three straight months.

Only the next five years?

Are we the next generation to scrimp and save, and seem like the old-timers to the fast-spending kids?

By Jeremy Fugleberg

Add glass art to the list of businesses hit by the deepening recession.

I just got off the phone with Loy Allen, in Hermosa. Loy makes beautiful glass work in her studio, Loy Allen Glass.

Much of what she makes is sold across the nation, including through a wholesale trade show in Philadelphia.

The galleries who buy her art there practically walked away in September, she said.

Her business was down 30 percent last year:

I’m well into the second year into whatever this recession is called. The arts are the first thing people quit buying.

She’s done a number of things to bring in more business, including a revamped product line and more promotions. She’ll also probably hit the art show circuit, too.

I’m interviewing her for a larger business feature about the her art as a business. That should run a week from Friday.

By Jeremy Fugleberg

This just in — Rapid City’s unemployment rate jumped in January, rising to 5.1 percent, according to the state Department of Labor. That’s the city’s highest unemployment rate since Febuary 1993.

The statewide seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in January stood at 4.4 percent, the highest the state had seen since 1987.

The city’s unemployment rate has climbed to nearly double what it was in July 2008, when it stood at a low 2.6 percent.

Hold on to your hats, folks.

Remember T. Boone Pickens? The Texas oil baron stopped in Rapid City a few months ago to make his pitch for alternative sources of energy, or what is known as his PIckens Plan.

The market mess punched T. Boone in the gut, according to a recent report. His BP Capital lost an estimated $2 billion. That’s in the wake of a Wall Street Journal report in late April that said BP Capital was down $1 billion.

Some tough times for the big guy.

The markets are up in early trading. Of course, up is relative.

But there are signs things might be on their way around. European leaders (in a unified way, finally) injected a lot of confidence into their banking system with guarantees, which perks up our markets. The Feds are throwing the bailout into gear, and the acquisitions continue, with the Wachovia deal getting Federal approval and Mitsubishi buying a chunk of Morgan Stanley.

In a light-hearted note, can things be so bad when we’re finally making fun of all the news photos of sad traders on the stock market floor? I wonder: Do editors send out photographers in the morning with instructions to shoot happy AND sad trader photos for use later depending on how the markets do throughout the rest of the day?

The bailout passed. That in itself should be positive news. Despite some additional add-ons that have nothing to do with bailing out the banking system, the $700 billion piece of legislation should make everyone feel better about things, right?

Wrong.

The markets tanked again this morning, although they seem to be coming back this afternoon. Like it or not, there’s a broader realization that our problems are spreading. Our economic well-being help boost the world. Now our poor economic condition is impacting the world’s economy.

From an AP piece:

“The market view is shifting from looking just at the misery of the financial sector to the global economy,” said Georges Ugeux, chairman and chief executive of New York-based Galileo Global Advisors. “There are enough indication that two things are happening: The crisis is spreading to other sectors, and that it is becoming global.”

Why is this such a surprise? We’ve been “globalizing” for years.

The AP piece ends on a positive note, however, and it’s worth pointing out. Especially for all of you who think I’m just doom-and-gloom:

Ryan Jacob, portfolio manager for the Jacob Internet Fund, said he’s sensing the market might be getting closer to a short-term bottom but that problems for the economy likely will persist.

He said the passage of the bailout package, billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s investment last week in General Electric Co. and even a skirmish between Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. over control of Wachovia Corp. are positive signs.

“We’ve had some positive anecdotal events in the last week so it’s making me a little bit more confident,” Jacob said. “These are all signs that make it more likely than not that we’re trying to find a near-term bottom.”

There’s hope. But we’re a herd, and we haven’t felt much hope lately. Especially with news of Lehman Bros.’ despicable executive payouts, even as the firm approached the Feds with hat in hand.

$700,000,000,000.

That’s how much U.S. taxpayers could end up paying to shore up the global economic system, on top of the billions already provided for Bear Stearns, Freddie and Fannie, etc.

How big is $700 billion? Here’s a good way to picture it:

It is one third of the total amount of money received by the federal government in 2007, including social security, income tax, corporate tax, and all other receipts.

It is $140 billion more than has been spent on the Iraq war since the invasion.

It is $120 billion more than that spent on social security benefits.

It is almost 3 billion nonrefundable bus fares from Durham to San Francisco, leaving tomorrow.

It is nine times the amount spent on education in 2007.

It could pay for 2,000 McDonalds apple pies for every single American.

It is 35 times the amount spent on all foreign aid in most years.

It is more zeros than the calculator that comes with my computer allows.

If there’s a bright side to this plan, this means the economy won’t fail, confidence might be restored and members of Congress on both sides of the aisle will come together on something to avoid looking like they didn’t do anything for Ma and Pa Taxpayer before elections in November.

But there are plenty of downsides. Plenty.

First, there’s that massive amount of money we’re promising to take some bad stuff off the books of private companies. Then there’s the total lack of oversight and accountability of those who will spend that money. From the proposal:

Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.

Also, we as taxpayers would likely end up paying more for the bad debts then they’re worth, since we’ve already committed to righting the ship. Yes, more doom and gloom, I know. In case you need a change of pace, here’s some preliminary devil’s advocacy for the plan.

So while we can all go sleep soundly tonight, don’t forget where this money is coming from, and don’t be afraid to ask politicians some tough questions about how it all came to this.

Turns out there is “too big to fail” for companies in this country. That is, of course, if you can stomach what is essentially nationalization of key businesses in the economy.

Days after investment bank Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy, taxpayers are footing the $85 billion bill to keep insuror AIG afloat. What’s curious here is that without public money, the AIG would’ve surely crashed. And yet somehow we, the taxpayers, only get just under 80 percent of the firm. In this ABC business news piece:

“They called it insurance, but they were gambling,” said Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz. “In a market economy, there has to be a sense of accountability. You can’t come running to the government every time you have a problem.”

AIG’s shareholders breathe a small sigh of relief, I’m sure, and so should the global markets, which are hyperventilating.

But what about the public’s money? It appears the wallet is open:

“With this move the Fed and Treasury have blinked in the face of market pressure once again,” writes Drew Matus, economist at Merrill Lynch. “They continue to react to situations rather than getting in front of them and now they have created uncertainty about what firms qualify for bailouts and which do not.”

The stock market rejoiced after the Fed (which now has commercials) decided not to reduce a key interest rate, but only because that meant the government was aiming for an AIG bail-out, not because investors wanted the interest rate kept where it was.

So what’s next? Other large businesses, probably. And likely many possibly small and medium-sized banks with high exposure to construction and real estate. That could means a bank you thought was small, local and stable.

Some analysts say the doom and gloom continues, but others say this bail-outmay mean we’re reaching the bottom. Time will tell.

But while I rant about federal buy-outs and bail-outs, a decisive, forward-thinking move may be appropriate here. Bring back the RTC, say Brady, Ludwig and Volcker in today’s Wall Street Journal:

Until there is a new mechanism in place to remove this decaying tissue from the system, the infection will spread, confidence will deteriorate further, and we will have to live through the mother of all credit contractions. This contraction will undercut the financial system, and with it, the broader economy that so far has held up reasonably well.

So here we are. Times are tough.

Can I say, time to buy?

Look, I know their failure could lead to a meltdown. And I know the markets are going to love it, as will our overseas friends. But something about the Federal bailout of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae doesn’t sit right with me. If you examine why Fannie and Freddie got a good look into the abyss, you’ll notice it had nothing to do with any decision I made or likely any that you made.

And yet here I am, helping subsidize the poor decisions of risk-takers in the two firms which supposedly were not guaranteed by the Feds. Taxpayers are on the hook for millions of dollars and heaven help Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae shareholders.

It makes me wonder if a meltdown would bring some sanity back to the market, and reminded us, as one blog commenter said, to never do this again.

Of course, fears of an apocalyptic meltdown would also force me to stock up on guns, tasty food tablets and a survival cocoon.

Katie bar the door.